The story of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 dominance is likely to play out again in 2025 as the metabolic medicine rivals continue to smooth over supply issues and rake in dividends from their respective tirzepatide and semaglutide franchises.

But, despite predictions that the companies' diabetes and obesity franchises will continue to go gangbusters, Lilly and Novo themselves are unlikely to dethrone the top drugmaker by sales this year, analysts at Evaluate said in a recent preview piece looking at the biopharma landscape over the next 12 months.

Lilly, which is on track to come out as 2024’s 11th largest drugmaker by prescription sales, is expected to climb the ranks to the fourth position in 2025, Evaluate said in its report. Novo Nordisk, for its part, is expected to jump from 10th place to sixth this year, according to Evaluate Pharma’s consensus forecasts.

Nevertheless, it’s Roche that’s been tipped to stand at the front of the pack when it comes to prescription sales overall in 2025. Evaluate acknowledged that Roche’s projected position as 2025’s largest drugmaker by sales is “somewhat surprising” given the absence of any of its products from the same report’s top drugs analysis.

That said, the company boasts “breadth of portfolio” and sports several blockbuster medicines that just fell short of the metrics needed to land on Evaluate’s roster of top drugs in 2025, the analysts explained. Roche’s eye disease therapy Vabysmo narrowly missed a spot on the list of fastest growing drugs this year, the analysts said.

Another company poised for “impressive growth” this year is U.K.-based GSK, which is expected to capitalize on its vaccines and HIV businesses in a big way in 2025, according to Evaluate’s report. That said, noted vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to head up the Department of Health and Human Services “raises the prospect of turbulence ahead” for the drugmaker, the Evaluate team warned.

Conversely, Pfizer—which has taken flak for failing to make good on its immense COVID-19 profits—is expected to slip in the rankings of top drugmakers by prescription sales from fifth to ninth place in 2025, Evaluate said.

As for the overall top 10 drugmakers by prescription sales in 2025, Evaluate has tipped Merck & Co. and AbbVie to take the silver and bronze, respectively. They’re followed by Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Novo, AstraZeneca, Novartis, Pfizer and finally Sanofi in the projected rankings.

In terms of drug sales buoying those company rankings, Lilly’s tirzepatide drugs and Novo’s semaglutide franchise are expected to reel in more than $70 billion in combined sales this year. 

Looking forward, it’s “almost inevitable” that Lilly and Novo will continue to move up the ranks in the coming years, the Evaluate team said.

Elsewhere, sales of Merck’s immuno-oncology cash cow Keytruda are expected to “peak” in 2025, with the company planning to file a subcutaneous version with regulators in a bid to extend the product’s life span. Sanofi and Regeneron’s Dupixent, AbbVie’s Skyrizi, Gilead Sciences' Biktarvy and J&J’s Darzalex rounded out the list of top drugs by projected sales this year.

Evaluate first pegged Roche to become the top drugmaker by prescription sales in its 2024 preview, estimating the Swiss firm would generate pharma revenue for the year approaching $54 billion.

At the time, Evaluate attributed its expectations to growing demand for Roche’s multiple sclerosis drug Ocrevus, cancer med Tecentriq and hemophilia therapy Hemlibra.

Evaluate has also puts its chips behind Roche as the projected leader among pharma companies by sales in 2028 in a “World Preview” report issued back in 2023.