About US
Contact us
- Publisher：Phexcom
- Publication：2020/8/24
In an increasingly crowded psoriasis market, a raft of next-gen biologics is looking to topple an older suite of drugs for sales supremacy. Dermatologists seem to be on board with that shift, a good thing for AbbVie's rising star Skyrizi—but for Amgen, which paid a premium for Celgene's Otezla last year, that's bad news.
Dermatologists are favoring moving their psoriasis patients off older meds such as Otezla in favor of newer biologics, most notably AbbVie's recent launch Skyrizi, SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges wrote in a note to clients, citing a MedaCorp survey.
Skyrizi, an IL-23 inhibitor, is one of a growing class of immunology biologics that dermatologists predict will capture an outsized share of severe psoriasis patients in the coming years, including earlier in treatment, Porges wrote.
In about three years, dermatologists predict the IL-23 class will lock up around 18% of the total biologic market in moderate patients and 29% in severe patients. For Skyrizi, which dermatologists think will eventually grab around 60% of all IL-23 users, that could equal a big haul.
But dermatologists also favor Skyrizi's in-class competitors, including Johnson & Johnson's Tremfya. The surveyed physicians generally favored IL-23s over the older IL-17 class, which includes bestselling psoriasis drug Cosentyx from Novartis.
Overall, dermatologists predicted the IL-23s would nab between 5% and 8% more biologic market share than the IL-17s in about three years, Porges wrote.
RELATED: Amgen ramps up Otezla expansion effort with positive data in mild psoriasis
Of course, those figures don't look great for non-biologics, anti-TNF drugs such as AbbVie's Humira, or Amgen's oral Otezla, a former Celgene blockbuster picked up as part of a $11.2 billion sale late last year with an additional $2.2 billion in tax benefits.
In May, Amgen filed for an Otezla label expansion into mild-to-moderate plaque psoriasis, right on the heels of phase 3 trial data showing that patients taking Otezla experienced a significant improvement in their symptoms over those on a placebo. But dermatologists aren't putting much stock into Otezla's future prospects, estimating a 20% to 25% drop in moderate-to-severe psoriasis market penetration in the next three years, Porges wrote.
That slide would pummel Amgen's valuation for the drug, which was pegged at five times its 2020 sales—in the range of $2.3 billion, by Porges' lights. SVB Leerink put Otezla's peak sales at $4 billion per year, but the likely launches of oral psoriasis drug candidates from Pfizer and Bristol Myers Squibb could challenge that prediction.
RELATED: AAD: AbbVie's Skyrizi bests Novartis' Cosentyx in head-to-head psoriasis match
Meanwhile, Skyrizi's future looks even brighter as AbbVie searches for growth drivers after its $63 billion merger with Allergan and the pending U.S. biosimilar onslaught for megablockbuster Humira, set to start in 2023.
The drug hit $330 million in sales in the second quarter, according to AbbVie. AbbVie hopes Skyrizi and rheumatology launch Rinvoq can combine to hit $20 billion in peak sales—more than enough to match Humira's biggest year.
To get there, the Illinois drugmaker is taking aim at some of Skyrizi's biggest psoriasis rivals. In June, AbbVie rolled out phase 3b data showing 66% of patients treated with Skyrizi saw completely clear skin on the PASI index at 16 weeks, compared with just 40% of those treated with Cosentyx.