AbbVie has held high hopes for newcomers Skyrizi and Rinvoq as post-Allergan merger business drivers with the ongoing decline of Humira. But with prescription figures and market access tracking way ahead of expectations, did AbbVie know those two meds would be doing this well this fast?

Psoriasis med Skyrizi and rheumatoid arthritis therapy Rinvoq could hit $11 billion in peak sales with scripts on the way up and market access growing, according to UBS analyst Navin Jacob. That peak would beat out even AbbVie's projection of $10 billion and potentially offer an opportunity for investors now with share prices hanging around $85. 

After just two years on the market, psoriasis med Skyrizi could reach more than $1 billion in global sales in 2021, Jacob said, driven by booming scripts and lucrative indications in its pipeline.

So far, Skyrizi has outperformed both Novartis' Cosentyx and Johnson & Johnson's Tremfya in terms of launch numbers, Jacob said, and it's suited to capitalize on a 90% probability of success in its pipeline indications, including psoriatic arthritis where Tremfya––another IL-23 inhibitor––recently scored a trial win. 

Combined with the highly successful launch of Rinvoq, AbbVie could see sales of both drugs top $1 billion next year––significantly higher than consensus estimates of around $800 million. 

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Hitting that forecast would take a significant jump in sales for both drugs after Skyrizi posted $91 million in sales in the third quarter and Rinvoq brought in just $14 million since its approval in mid-August. 

Even with sales flagging so far––Jacob put Rinvoq's 2020 sales at around $276 million compared with a consensus $342 million––booming market access could give Rinvoq a chance to succeed in the coming year. Industry watchers expect Rinvoq to hit 75% access in January 2020, way ahead of UBS' previous estimate, Jacob said. 

All told, the bullish forecast could present an opportunity for investors, the way Jacob sees it. 

"Despite our Rinvoq sales being weaker than consensus estimates for '20 for Rinvoq––we remind investors to put this in context of how cheap the stock is," Jacob wrote. 

As of press time Friday, AbbVie was trading at $85.91 per share, up about 10% on the month. 

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But that's not the only good news for AbbVie as it works to close its $63 billion merger with Allergan. 

Allergan's antipsychotic med Vraylar posted weekly script growth of around 80%, giving Jacob hope the drug could hit around $1.2 billion in sales next year and $1.7 billion in peak sales. Consensus estimates for Vraylar's sales next year are at $800 million. 

Meanwhile, Allergan's blockbuster Botox could be set for an even more lucrative future with a key challenger, Evolus' Jeauveau, expanding the market even as it snaps up share.

"Although we acknowledge Jeuveau is likely to gain share over the next couple of years leading to Botox share loss, we estimate market growth will offset much of this share loss," Jacob wrote. 

More importantly, Mylan pushed back a decision to co-develop a biosimilar version of Botox, which would give the AbbVie-Allergan merger some breathing room before copycats hit the market. 

In another positive for AbbVie, blood cancer meds Imbruvica and Venclexta both beat out third-quarter consensus with a longer duration of therapy in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) a likely boosting sales. Jacob said that prescribing data in CML and multiple myeloma could present a compelling case for longer use of both AbbVie drugs, boosting peak combined sales to around $11 billion.